Survival Global Collapse
The Survival of Humanity in a Global Collapse
Survival Global Collapse: There is no respite for gold bulls, indicates the drop in the risk reversals gauge to fresh 11-month low on Friday.
The Survival Global Collapse may have na answer here for you! XAU/USD one-month 25 delta risk reversals fell to -1.45 on Friday; the lowest level since Jan. 4, indicating the demand for the downside bets (Put options) continues to rise.
With the Fed set to hike rates this week, the yellow metal could remain under pressure as suggested the falling risk reversals. As of writing, the yellow metal is at $1248 levels.
As for the recent surges and drops in Bitcoin, “you wonder where prices will even be by the end of 2017,” Slok said during an appearance on CNBC’s Trading Nation broadcast.
Predicting that price swings of the cryptocurrency will remain an issue in 2018, Slok said questions about Bitcoin regulation, fear not being able to Survival Global Collapse with transparency and disclosure issues remain unanswered. “It’s mainly because it is something that I think financial markets so far have been discounting as a small issue,” Slok said. “We do worry a bit that it could become more systemic, in particular, if the current trends continue into 2018.”
But the Deutsche Banker’s biggest worry is to Survival Global Collapse understandably a spike in inflation in the coming months. Low national unemployment, growth projections for the nation’s gross domestic product, and other financial measures signal a potential rise, Slok said. As we have reportedly previously, virtually every bank from BofA to Goldman to Barclays has warned that their optimistic forecasts are null and void if inflation in the coming months spikes, forcing the Fed to tighten monetary conditions at a faster pace.
On the geopolitical front, U.S. and global uncertainty in regards that the world Survival Global Collapse now focus upon North Korea’s test launches of ICBMs capable of reaching the U.S. mainland and other potential targets could roil financial markets. Slok cited fear that we could have a “further escalation of the situation.”
The bank’s worry list, of Survival Global Collapse projections, in random order and featuring both upside and downside concerns for financial markets, questioned whether Jerome Powell, the incoming Federal Reserve chairman, will be “politically driven or driven by the incoming data.” Other risks of Survival Global Collapse include tests for the Fed’s near chair.
The potential replacement of BOJ’s head Haruhiko Kuroda, the ECB announcing its QE exit in Q2, housing bubble bursts in Canada, Australia, Sweden or Norway, a correction in the U.S. stock market where there is a mismatch between valuation and fundamentals, a harder landing than expected for China as economic growth there slows, and many other risks which would all weigh on financial markets.
“Can markets Survival Global Collapse even may occur with small correction?” the Deutsche Bank strategist asked rhetorically, reminding his reads that there has not been one for “a long time.”
The full list of 30 risk factors is below.
Finally, someone has correctly pegged the role of Marx, robotics, the destruction of capital and hence, the destruction of Capitalism and Free Enterprise itself.
Zbigniew Brzezinski in Between Two Ages: America’s Role in the Technetronic Era, developed the idea that Marxism was a mere stepping stone to the end result of societal evolution, which he called the Technetronic Era, aka Technocracy.
Thus, Capitalism will die and be replaced by Technocracy.
Charles Hugh Smith has given the first clear explanation of how and why it will happen this way.
Let’s be clear, to Survival Global Collapse depends on how far the rabbit hole goes. I am not necessarily talking about a return to the sub-$30 of the beginning of 2016 here, but a return to the more recent lows around $42 before too long is distinctly possible.
If that happens, who knows where we go from there? There are, as I have noted in the past, reasons to believe that the long-term path of oil is still upward, but more immediately there is one dominant factor that keeps adding downward pressure, large and still growing supply from North American shale producers.
Some say to Survival Global Collapse, as in this FT piece, that there are signs that U.S. shale production has peaked, but then that was also supposed to be the case in 2015 and 2016. I am sure that if I could bother to go back further I would find that the same thing was said in previous years too.
The fact is though, that as the EIA chart below shows, after dropping off as price declined at earlier this year, U.S. crude production is growing again and will be higher this year than last and is expected to be higher again in 2018.
When OPEC and other signatories to the deal got together recently in Vienna they announced that there was almost total adherence to the scheduled cuts that will Survival Global Collapse. That was greeted by most people, including, I will freely admit me, as a positive for oil prices.
It is certainly rare based on the results of other agreements to cut and therefore impressive, but there is a basic problem. Now that the appropriate level of cuts has been achieved, production in the participating countries will at best remain at current levels. U.S. production, however, continues to increase exponentially.
Bitcoin’s manic run-up this year has boosted volatility far in excess of other asset classes. The futures trading may help dampen some of the sharp moves, analysts said.
“Hypothetically, volatility over the long run should drop after institutions get involved,” Gottlieb said. “But there may not be an immediate impact, say in the first month.”
While bitcoin’s price rise mystifies many, its origins have been the subject of much speculation.
It was set up in 2008 by someone or some group calling themselves Satoshi Nakamoto, and was the first digital currency to successfully use cryptography to keep transactions secure and hidden, making traditional financial regulation difficult if not impossible.
Central bankers and critics of the cryptocurrency have been ringing the alarm bells over the surge in the price and other risks such as whether the opaque market can be used for money laundering.
“It looks remarkably like a bubble forming that may over Survival Global Collapse to me,” the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Acting Governor Grant Spencer said on a television program run on Sunday.
“We’ve seen them in the past. Over the centuries we’ve seen bubbles and this appears to be a bit of a classic case,” he said.
Many investors have stood on the sidelines watching its price rocket. However, it is possible to buy bitcoin without having to spend the full price of one coin. Bitcoin’s smallest unit is a Satoshi, named after the elusive creator of the cryptocurrency.
Somebody who invested $1,000 in bitcoin at the start of 2013 and had never sold any of it would now be sitting on around $1.2 million.
Heightened excitement ahead of the launch of the futures has given an extra kick to the cryptocurrency’s scorching run this year.
“The independence of the US Federal Reserve has historically fluctuated according to the needs and policies of the federal government leading the world contrary in a Survival Global Collapse scenario.
The double whammy of a weak economy and higher interest rates/inflation will leave the Fed with no answers on monetary policy.
The hapless Fed will be scapegoated by politicians for the economy’s weak performance, a bond market in vicious turmoil, and the aggravation of already worsening inequality brought on by years of post-global financial crisis quantitative ..
The Bank of Japan’s policy of yield curve control depends on soft global interest rates and low yields, and in 2018 this centre will simply not hold. A
s inflation rises, yields too will spike, and the result will be a fantastical plunge in the yen. Ultimately, the central bank will need to resort to QE-style measures, but not before USDJPY hits 150.”
“China is by far the world’s largest oil importer, and many producer nations are already more than happy to transact in yuan terms.
With the US’ global power and reach waning, and given the success of CNY-based commodity futures in general, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange’s decision to launch a yuan-based crude oil future is a runaway success.”
“World markets are increasingly full of signs and wonders, and the collapse of volatility seen across asset classes in 2017 was no exception.
The S&P 500 suffers a flash crash of 25% (peak-to-trough) in a spectacular, one-off move reminiscent of 1987.
A whole swathe of short volatility funds are completely wiped out and a formerly unknown long volatility trader realises a 1000% gain and instantly becomes a legend.”
Saxo Bank suggests ten events that could derail global markets next year which few would be expecting.
By: WolfgangPress / OptEd
Each year Saxo Bank publishes a list of predictions to the Survival Global Collapse which focus on “a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shock waves across financial markets”.
Saxo had believed 2017 would be a volatile year, given the shock of Brexit and the seemingly impossible rise of Trump.
But instead we’ve seen a year of “outrageously smooth sailing” that has inflated risk assets around the world without incident.
But the reality of long periods of low volatility is that they typically lead to future volatility as investors underestimate risks and expect simply more of the same.
It is important to note none of the below is Saxo Bank’s official market outlook.
1 The Fed loses independence and the US Treasury takes charge
Both Republicans and Democrats vie for an increased share of the populist vote at the 2018 mid-terms and in so doing budget discipline is entirely absent. Republican tax cuts lead to a massive revenue shortfall which worsens as the US heads into recession. Faced with a weak economy, higher rates and higher inflation, the Fed has no answers. Treasury enacts emergency powers and caps the long bond yield at 2.5%, as it did after World War II.
2 Bank of Japan forced to abandon yield curve control
The Bank of Japan’s policy of yield curve control relies on low global rates and in 2018, rates rise. As inflation rises, yields will spike, and the result will be a fantastical plunge in the yen and a return to BoJ QE.
3 China rolls out the Petro-Renminbi
China is the largest importer of crude oil and many producer nations are happy to transact in renminbi. Given the success of Chinese commodity futures to date, China launches a renminbi-based oil contract and it is a runaway success. The renminbi appreciates more than 10% versus the US dollar.
4 Volatility spikes after flash crash in stock markets
The collapse of volatility seen across asset classes in 2017 has been remarkable, with historic lows in the VIX matching record highs in stocks and real estate. The result is a powder keg that is set to blow sky-high. The S&P500 plunges -25% in a day, a la 1987, and a swathe of short volatility funds are wiped out. A formerly unknown long volatility trader returns 1000% and becomes a legend.
5 US voters go hard left in 2018 election
Millennials are already a larger demographic in the US than Baby Boomers. A general revulsion of Trump among the young, an even wider inequality gap thanks to Republican tax reform and a new breed of Democrat candidates tapping into Sanders-style populism see Millennials turning out to vote in droves in November. The Democrats implement spending stimulus, deficits be damned. The US 30-year yield soars through 5%.
6 Austro-Hungarian Empire threatens EU takeover
The divide between old core EU members and newer members of the bloc will widen to an impassable chasm in 2018 and for the first time since 1951, Europe’s political centre of gravity will shift from Germany-France to Central Eastern Europe. The euro spikes to new highs before weakening towards parity with the US dollar.
7 Bitcoin is thrown to the wolves
Bitcoin surpasses US$60,000 in 2018 with a market capitalisation of US$1trn post the December 2017 launch of futures contracts, which funds are more comfortable trading rather than tying up money in crypto-currencies [Note: the bitcoin contracts will be US dollar cash settled, bot bitcoin settled]. However, Russia and China move to prohibit non-sanctioned crypto-currencies and bitcoin crashes, falling to its “production cost” of US$1,000 in 2019.
8 Southern African Spring sees South Africa blossom
The forced resignation of Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe triggers a wave of political change across sub-Saharan Africa. South Africa’s Jacob Zuma is forced out of power and Congo’s Joseph Kabila is forced to flee the country. South Africa is the main winner as the rand rises 30% against other currencies. South Africa and satellite economies post the world’s strongest rates of growth.
9 Tencent topples Apple as market cap king
China has been opening up its capital markets and reform programs are driving a rise in investor sentiment. Chinese tech company Tencent’s share price has rocketed 120% in 2017 and is now in the global top five by market cap, at one point eclipsing Facebook. In 2018 Tencent’s price gains another 100% despite already enormous size, knocking off number one Apple at well above US$1trn.
10 It’s their time – women crash the glass ceiling
US universities are now graduating 50% more women than men at bachelor level. Women now comprise almost half of all business graduates. In 2017, only 6.4% of CEOs in the Fortune 500 list are women, despite earning more on average than their male peers. Women will begin to realise their desired potential because it is practical, not simply “fair”, providing for economic growth in low-productivity, aging developed countries without growing the population. A woman occupies the top spot at more than 60 Fortune 500 companies by end-2018.
How to Survive Global Financial Collapse in 2017 ? Predictions about Economic Collapse 2017. Are You Prepared For The Coming Economic Collapse And The Next Great Depression?
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